The state sales tax collections keep falling which belies the rosy economic reporting being given. My economic forecast is for dire straits for most all non-gold owners.
BTW, did anybody see last night on the evening news the story about the missile attack on the convoy in Iraq delivering new Iraqi dinar currency?
I think I'll give CPM another call. It is mathematically impossible for a fiat currency to be both a transaction currency and a store of wealth.
What we are witnessing is the realization of this fact by the rest of the world. What will be the event to break this rally in gold whenever that may occur.
Based on all that I can read the structural problems with the Dollar indicates a huge upside in the value of gold BUT nothing goes up forever.
Free Gold does go up forever in nominal terms relative to fiat currencies. It may be beneficial to take a walk down the gold trail for a while to get a complete understanding of this concept.
It took me many trips down the trail to do so. All the technical charts are screaming for an explosion about right now.
Or you could be optomistic, as my friend commented this morning. What you don't understand is that the govt.
You are invited to visit now, often. What does that mean? Now there is a new kid on the block,having stated its pro Gold stance.
This new competitor euro forced the old guy to keep up or lose its reserve status. No,I never bought the overbought argument in a market short t and being suppressed since decades.
Surely,it needs some kind of agreement like taking the t shorts off the books of exposed US? This is not schizophren if you think about it. Yes, paper Gold is still being manipulated'still in the interest of the currency.
The interest being now just buying a bit more time. This the title of an article from Alex Wallenwein going the rounds at the moment.
Basically dividing the total number of dollars by the US gold reserves. My mind was boggled that someone should write an article with such an elementary arithmetic mistake in it!
Could they Giants be telling the Sheeple something? Using "almighty" in terms of the dollar seems to be a huge misnomer.
Now almighty gold- that's more like it. We're one derivative neutron bomb away. THAT must stand for "Christmas" present! Can anyone else read this chart and correct me, if I have errored?
Where is Sir Soc when you need him? This year do what Santa's doing. Give the gift of Gold. The gift that keeps on giving year after year.
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Find the same high standards of quality, attention to detail and old-world service at USAGOLD-Jewelry that you have grown accustomed to as a client on the brokerage side of the firm.
The Perfect Gift this Season! Gold did not keep up today, but at least bettered yesterday's gain. But Gresham's Law give's fiat a chance to be a transaction currency until the bitter end anyway.
Maybe A Giant or Two Could be interest rates will go up as the dollar goes down. Sometimes, like today, it seems that the shorts are capping the price of gold out of habit rather than conviction.
Of course, the dam is made out of paper. And where is the government going to get the paper to print those "fingers"?
That lured money away from gold and into interest-bearing paper investments. Higher interest rates also tempted gold miners to sell future production.
This increased the supply of gold on the market although a lot of it was "paper" gold. Togerther, those factors reversed the rising tide of gold.
Things are different now. Gold miners are still trying to get out from under the forward sales thay made previously. But more importantly, with the current sad state of consumer, corporate, and government finances debt , there is no possible way that the economy could tolerate even moderatley higher interest rates at this time or at any time in the near foreseeable future.
The employment picture and wages will have to improve markedly before there is any possible interest rate hike. In the meantime, the price of gold is going to be largely determined by the acts of foreigners, not by Americans.
Why such a low guess? Well there is a fair chance that it could get hammered down again for a time, and besides, I don't like being in crowds.
I am going to guess NO, and it is really only a guess because almost anything is possible. Sorry, out feasting with the other members of the Symposium.
On the latter point, nothing has changed. I haven't been posting because there was nothing to add to my previous analysis.
Nor did I ever regard as having any major significance. The key level was and as soon as we broke that, we got the signal for a major bull market.
Now that seems to have fallen, the Cartel will doubtless fall back to and start spinning lots of ridiculous stories about how gold is at the end of its run, since this was the high.
Like all the other feeble efforts to call the top all the way from , this will be revealed as so much BS. If I had to go on TV and make a prognosis, I'd say that I expect gold to make a near-term high in the low s, pull back to and then build up another trading range that will set it up for an assault on As for the timing of the move from to - I'm completely clueless.
Nearly a year ago when gold was down at , I asked one of my TA gurus what he thought about gold and he replied: If you think about it, the way to take the wind out of gold's sails is to push it up there in short order.
The precious metals gained again on a weakening US dollar though some attribute the gains to gold producer Barrick statements that they will reduce their hedgebook to zero.
However, the real story in gold is the plunging US dollar as foreigners bail out of US investments.
The dollar remains overvalued and is likely to hit lower lows. The soaring current account and budget deficits have both foreign and domestic investors "running for the hills".
As a result the precious metals provided prudent investors with a nice layer of "portfolio insurance". IF I am reading him correctly.
HEY, even Wizards dream too! Please, tell me how to close 16 moz of forwarded gold, when the hedge book was already under water to the tune of 1.
We're now talking plus POG and the hedge book of ABX may have reached stratopherical dimensions - oh, on the wrong side of the ledger.
This may mean these geniuses are finding it somewhat difficult to explain their premium option "excercises" to their shareholders, as the share price was lagging badly any non-hedger!
In an interview with Reuters, Barrick chief executive Greg Wilkins said the world's third biggest gold miner would, over time, empty its forward sales book -- the biggest in the gold business -- although it was in no rush, or under any pressure, to get rid of it.
We aren't qualifying the policy. We are adopting truly a no-hedging policy," Wilkins said. Munk said then that the Toronto-based firm's commitment to hedging was a thing of the past.
As promised, the firm also posted a formal no-hedging policy statement on its Web site on Tuesday. Tells of why, but mum on how Wilkins, who took the helm at Barrick in February, said he had spent the last eight to nine months speaking to investors and hearing their concerns about the firm's hedge book, which critics say reduces the firm's exposure to rising gold prices.
Currently weighing in at 16 million ounces of gold, Barrick has reduced the hedge book from a peak of 24 million ounces 18 months ago.
But it remains far fatter than the hedge programs of rivals Newmont Mining Corp. The share prices of both Newmont and Placer have outperformed Barrick's this year as bullion has risen.
Analysts said it was crucial to know how Barrick plans to cut back its hedge positions, as it could be expensive if the gold price continues to rise.
But Wilkins declined to provide details, saying only that many options were being considered. Some analysts said Barrick had woken up too late in the gold cycle to change a policy that has been bitterly attacked by anti-hedging groups since the bullion price began rising in But there was also praise for Barrick.
But hindsight is and it's the same hedge book that has been very successful for them throughout the last two decades," Hodaly said.
Long time investors will also remember that survival - as nice as it may sound - is only part of the equation. In times of a gold bull market, they just might expect more of a performance; At least more than sub average Maybe some of you here have been shareholders in the oldest US gold mining company - Homestake?
I have and have never forgiven these predators to take 'em over for scratch! Shame on ABX - a company, which could have become great on its own merits - instead, it chose to defile its product for a short term gain!
Simple and quick question I don't get it. Remember Ashanti and Cambior? What's different this time around?
Where is the "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis" in all its sordid manifestations? My spies tell me that if Congress had to abide by the accounting rules of Sarbines-Oxley, the current budget deficit would be about 1.
Yes, Indeed, how come the margin calls are still not triggered? Well, according to Dietmar's work - and a bit of my own - we feel that POG may be the ultimate trigger.
Ha, though what do I know? This might also only be true, if the counterparty s are purely US dollar denominated - as in JPM or GS -, though overall you may have spot deferred hedges as long as you are liquid.
If not, try to defer a margin call! Gold in the ground is great - so is next years great soy bean crop - and as long as you don't get called on the real McCoy -NOW - or tide over by paying up!
Perhaps they have been hung out to dry. A mining company is prey to the bullion banks due to the ultimate backstops Shareholders will get screwed of course ala ENRON et al but the executives will continue to live large.
ABX made it public having 1. In the latest Qu. At POG or even think , who really cares about their 87 moz of deep storage gold?
I want to chew my beans now and won't be 'deferring' starvation until my premium supplier choses to deliver at his discretion! Make mine physical GOLD.
What a bunch of scumbags. It must be hell trying to rig today's markets. Like keeping the tide from coming in or out.
Yesterday the economic news said "happy days are here again" and everyone dutifully piled into shares. It's hard to keep all the folks fooled all the time.
Today the economy did not shout a booming message and the shares got soggy. Who the hell is running this game anyway? Can't they be consistent?
We need more good news to keep this pig flying. A little more lipstick please. Thanks again, Jon for your great efforts - cb2. As per my un- educated guess ABX will be under water.
Though the GOLD won't stop there and as the derivative implosions may start at this juncture - I'll believe that even POG will be a non event in Gold will regain its rightful place - "as the only currency, which can't be debased" thanks to John Embry - as the only true value!
Anyone not insiders have an idea what's going on with Chrystallex? They were rising side by side with Canyon and the other juniors right until Thanksgiving.
Did the market dislike a couple of their latest alliances? Smeagol thanks all at the Castle for this treat!
There will be an absolute run to for gold per ounce during The world is tired of fiat and before gold gives up it will surpass History always repeats itself.
Any terrorist attack in America will push it over in We have been told its coming. I was wondering how best to sell non-collectible coins in the future.
I am not asking for company specifics that might infringe on the hospitality of CPM, just for general tips.
Can you get close to the "sell price" shown at the big POG quote sites, say, by selling coins locally in your town? Is the paperwork shipped with your coins important to retain as some sort of proof, or are the coins themselves sufficient?
I received some silver coins recently in plastic sheets; does removing them from the sheets reduce their value? Assuming you keep them from tarnishing.
Sorry if these are naive questions, but I have just been buying for the past year, never selling! Dear Remarx, We do buy back coins in any amount from our clientele.
Please call your account representative for current prices. Our telephone recording sometimes gives people the wrong impression. We advertise all over the United States and people have called us in the past from all over the United States to sell class rings, spoons, jewelry, gold coins -- you name it.
We are in the investment business so we send those inquiries to the local coin shop, and the phone message is designed to allay those calls.
If we didn't do it that way, we would be inundated with phone calls from sellers of scrap. That's not our business.
At the same time, we welcome working with our clientele and I hope this clears your confusion in this regard.
Gold as a currency without liability has these charlatans shaking in fear. Thanks for tremendous effort. Your daily reports are outstanding and simply Another very good reason to do business with MK and company.
However, that assumes that things drift along more or less as they have done in the past couple of years. Well, not much except realisation and mood!
Similarly there is now little doubt in the minds of the many that gold is not the "has-been" that it was thought to be a few years ago.
This trend has been gathering strength and is manifest by the concavity in the POG versus Time curve for the last few years the trend is not linear, but is concave upwards.
Thus POG is likely to change more rapidly in the coming year than in the past few years. No wonder the gold bugs in America are cheering!
Good luck to you all. Have to say it isn't the same in Australia due to the increase in our dollar. Today I can see the reason Black Blade was always pushing the insurance angle of gold.
Think it must be time for a holiday in the States. Any ideas on how to transport gold out of Australia? Cancel insurance and watch the fees go down, chargin is one thing collectin is another.
We probably had better medical care before the advent of insurance. Informed opinion it appears. You asked -- "I received some silver coins recently in plastic sheets; does removing them from the sheets reduce their value?
Even coins that were purched in a "flip" should be keep in the plastic! IF you want to see a grown collector cry, show them a rare coin that you have just given a polished shine!
Potter, I can not invision the thought. Can you provide a hint? I believe as most people on this forum that Gold is in the beginning of a muli-year Bull run.
The dollar is one sick puppy and as foreign investment continues to leave the U. I hope it stays on the present trend line and climbs up nice and slow, so all on this forum can continue to accumulate.
Sorry, should have asked my CPM rep first! Not that I want to sell any back now. Thanks for answering what was probably a silly question about the plastic.
I wasn't talking about cleaning collector coins, just new eagles and maples. Now, can anybody tell me about transporting coins to Canada from the US?
Maple Leaves are 0. SOME buyers will deduct at least a dollar or two for such a hairline scratch!!! Keep them in the TUBE or flip and do not consider even thinking about shining them!
My friends grandfather has told me that ever once in a while someone will bring in a slab to sell,and these people have removed original coin and replaced it with lower grade coin.
These people than reseal the slab. He said some of these people are masters of their craft. If you buy slabs buy from reputable dealers.
So, Barrick is giving up hedging. Is this a company responding to the demands of their shareholders or a company that is quietly changing course, like a supertanker?
If we take it that ABX does have a ticking time bomb hidden in its accounts then how can it respond? It can't respond openly and it can't terminate its derivatives.
Presumably it will continue to openly sell into the market at the highs and look to increasing its gold reserves and production. Buying into elephants, such as Sukhoi Log, will be the only way that ABX can increase its size to overcome the drag imposed by its derivative position.
This nugget collection was carried in a gold colored "gun case" you know the type that has the cut-out holes in foam, to hold the items in place.
The four Goldbugs, were interested in showing this collection to a number of Jr. Miners that were listed on the Vancouver Exchange and thought that they would drop by a Gold Convention that was in Vancouver BC at the same time.
He had the collection professionally photographed and had two copies of the "stamped" photo. He insisted on stopping at the US Customs Office and "declaring" the collection.
He showed them the collection, and gave them a photo of it, asking for a receipt of "export". IT was very lucky that he did.
Upon collection of the forms, the Inspector requested the Limo keys and instructed two other Officers to search the vehicle.
Opened it up and ask, "What is this worth? At that, the former CHIP smiled as he presented the export receipt and photo of the collection to the Officer and said "not a problem"!
Gandalf, all I can say is: I had no idea. We'll be in for a few more bottles mind you, when the Invisible Hand wins the price guessing competition!
As if the dollar is looking at the euro, and As if the dollar is suggesting to throw away any kind of currency-stability and go I leave the interpetation of this euro-stance to the readers.
And it is fine with me that nobody in the dollar camp sees any Gold-connection in the euro-concept! Quite normal, because the dollar-system has already dis-connected from Gold.
As long as we remain in the economical desert and the debt-lion is must be debt-powered, the euro only needs to outrun the dollar by 1 nanometer.
BTW - latest article of contraryinvestor has some very fine, balanced insights - a must study. This bull's running parabolic in The funnymentals can longer be denied.
Not even by Barrick The damned thing is going up. Miniscule gold stock market caps and sellable bullion will severely limit available seating.
This ticket's gonna be pricey The juggernaut of fiat debasement is now unstoppable. The king of tangibles will soon be visiting the Oort cloud.
Keeps his real targets to himself so as not to be perceived as crazy The Blade god bless him posts less cause his work's been done.
The trend's on cruise and he knows it. Greenie banged Galt's creator. He's gonna shrug and put Au back in it's place. Remember what he told Ron Paul: No cheering in the streets.
No oil to pay for it all. This can only end badly Another bench warmer who walked the plank for the Clinton-Rubin lets-grease-the-pig-pay-for-it-later scamola.
The emptying of western vaults will be the REAL scandal. Portugal, Holland, Belgium, England et al had prison sex too.
The hall of shame awaits you Rising sun will soon realise the folly of shorting the yen. Shotgun marriage to evolving sino-russian-arab economic axis of evil?
I bought 2 more ozs instead of paying my rent! Calling for a 1. That will never do,where's this free gold,that would seem to be a less divisive safe haven.
From December 5, the State Bank of Vietnam will sell sufficient US dollars at official exchange rate for banks and companies who already have had gold import quota to import gold stabilizing gold prices on the domestic market.
Quantity of gold allowed to import under licenses granted by the State Bank is eight tonnes. An official from the State Bank of Vietnam said supplying foreign currencies to cover imports by the commercial banks is normal and smooth.
Experts calculates if bank supply sufficient dollars to buy gold at exchange rate of VND15, per dollar as Vietcombank's selling rate on Dec.
The Sun, that favourite rag of the common masses in Britain, famous for its' Page 3 Girls has a small article today as follows Small investors are to get a simple way of speculating on gold prices.
Punting the "yellow metal", as it is is called, is popular with City professionals. But they use complex financial means - to avoid physically holding gold bars- which are often beyond the reach of ordinary folk.
Now a company whose share price is linked to gold prices is listing on the stock market. Managing Director Simon Village said the precious metal will be purchased aand stored on clients' behalf.
With the market turmoil, gold has been a good way to diversify. An old City adage says that, when private investors are about to get on board, it's time for the professionals to get off.
Is this launch a sign that the booming gold market is about to turn? Guess which team the Sun bats for? Have I misunderstood the reality of things or is this article blatantly incorrect?
Frankly, I doubt many UK investors will do very much, particularly since they will be sacrificing much of their liquid assets to the great god of rising mortgage rates in the near future.
Indian demand is a better bet. I think the cabal will do what they can to contain the price as long as they can.
Got to clear those short postions. Just a guess, all in MVHO. I read your cross-border story with great interest, but was surprised at the change from the dispassionate 3rd person recounting to the insertion of a 'we'.
Hope you didn't ruin the pants as well! I tried out your advice with a tube of maple leaves last night, but, frankly, while the coins stayed beautifully intact while I passed them from one hand to another, the sensory input was sadly missing - no clink!
This may be true eventually, but at what price? At some stage, there will be a decoupling of the paper and physical price of gold when there is the realization that there is not enough physical to satisfy the paper demand.
At this point, the price of physical will go 'too da moon', but the paper price, rather than following it, will revert to its intrinsic value - which is zero.
It will be shown to be no longer 'as good as gold'. If that were going to happen, we would already have seen it.
The open interest is just going to keep on growing until it is the longs selling at a discount to physical which causes it to decline.
There are some who cannot believe this because of all the margin requirement to maintain the short position, not to mention the potential loss for the bullion banks holding that position.
But it really depends on who the banks are holding that position for - if it is someone who has the capability of 'printing' as many FRNs as necessary, there is no problem.
All this to extend the dollar timeline. This is why almost everyone here is holding physical - all the other paper games we may play and talk about are merely a means to get more FRNs or whatever paper is used locally to get more physical.
And the paper game may burn up any day. Gold - let's get physical! Spare a thought for those of us gold bugs in SA who are still waiting for the gold bull to start As my first post here, I'd just like to say thanks to all for the information that has been posted here.
It has helped tremendously with my understanding of the markets and economies. It is almost inevitable, maybe certain, possibly compulsory, conceivably unavoidable, perchance absolute, perhaps assured, supposedly beyond doubt, essentially categorical, and fundamentally cocksure to happen.
The gold bull has started. It's the denomination of the asset in USD that is killing the goose. Przystup, a research fellow at the National Defense University, wrote recently.
Beyond the economics and the diplomacy, something else is going on. China has the allure of the new. A new affinity is developing between the once feared China and the rest of Asia.
Karim Raslan, a Malaysian lawyer and writer who traveled to Washington recently on a Fulbright scholarship, put it this way.
The American "obsession" with terror seems tedious to Asians, he said. Not missing a beat, China fiddles while the west burns!
How fortunate to have this opportunity to exchange Rand paper promises for real wealth at such bargain prices. It seems like such a short time ago.
Late Tuesday GM also dropped tentative plans to sell its massive commercial mortgage arm, expressing confidence it can find ways to access new funding.
Commercial property still looks good to lenders who want to capitalize on the potential growth in payrolls. But if the bond market takes a look under the bed, it will find that there really are plenty of monsters down there.
First off, the economy is soaring. The third-quarter's growth rate of 8. Yes, the nation's key inflation gauge, the consumer price index, remains muted, but commodity prices are surging.
The Commodity Research Bureau Index of commodity prices has touched six-year highs; copper, a favorite early indicator among inflation hawks, is up 37 percent this year.
Meantime, the dollar has fallen sharply, sinking to its lowest level in three years against the yen despite a massive effort by Japanese authorities to keep the buck strong and its lowest levels ever against the euro.
Even the cheerleaders are finding it hard to believe that Sir AG won't raise the rates. Of course, if he can "outstare" the EMU, maybe they'll drop theirs first.
This article offers excellent long-term perspective on gold, currencies and changing world economic power.
Thanks for the post, Sir B Boilermaker. The central bankers who are pumping so much money like some insane beasts are in effect destroying the dollar now at velocity that is close to reaching a terminal level.
This in turn is pushing up the currencies of resource-based nations to extreme levels, one such country is South Africa.
Why do I specifically mention this country? South Africa has the largest Gold, Platinum, diamond and various other commodities reserves in the world.
The Rand has appreciated at extreme pace to become what I have called the best performing currency in the word. From taking 14 Rands to buy 1 dollar it now takes less than 7 Rands to do the same and this has taken place in approx 1 year.
This has had the net effect of actually pushing the cost of South African mining companies through the roof. Their costs are in rands, but they have to sell the product in depreciating dollars so they keep making less and less and they reaching a critical point, If the Rand should appreciate more say past the 6.
I keep rethinking my statement of a few days ago. Many authors are also noting that the huge multinationals are reporting profit growth that is more due to currency arbitrage than actual increases in sales and margin.
You caught me, the "Driver", rated as the most responsible person in the minds of the Officials! FX1 And just above yesterday's close.
To begin with, it's worth noting that in each case the fateful errors were made by talented and well-educated people. This includes John Law, by the way, who's gotten very bad, and I think, unfair, press ever since.
These men did not take the road to ruin frivolously, but rather as a measured response to a set of exigent circumstances. The point is that governments are simply incapable of managing a money supply.
The pressures and temptations always prove too great. A very good historical account of historical fiat failures and correlation to today's economic woes.
The previous post began with a table, whose tabs didn't copy. When expaned, it compares the "fiat bubbles" by the damage done in their currency.
Dollar falls to new lifetime low against euro By Jennifer Hughes Published: December 3 The Euro reached a new lifetime high against the dollar at 1.
No signs of letup in the dollar fall. As Sinclair says, "Stay the Course". Gee, I wonder where he first heard that? Speaking ahead of a Thursday meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries he warned that the cartel would need to cut output again early next year to support the market.
Given the record low US savings, if the real estate bubble implodes into a hearty increase of foreclosures, watch for a return to the Hoovervilles and Reaganvilles that housed so many "new" street people during those post-bubble years.
It reminds me of a song I published and recorded during Ronnie's reign, if I may indulge our readers. President, I know you're working very hard, so I don't want too much time or too much pity.
I know you'll find a way to end these unemployment blues, 'Cause there're no more vacancies in "Tent City". Down under the freeway and across the USA We increase their population day by day But you tell us if we "stay the course", we'll all be OK.
Now the EDD has listings for a hundred jobs or so, and we all go out to find them every day. When we show up to interview we're 50, strong and two bucks an hour is all they're gonna pay Chorus - Now I've heard them say your programs have inflation on the run, and the interest rate is low as low can be.
And I know it's costing billions just to keep the Russians down, but you kept us down in San Jose for free.
Chorus - So tell us Mr. President just what you're gonna do 'Cause the current situation isn't pretty. Remember while you ride your horse The millions who must "Stay the course" When the only home they have is in "Tent City" -Chorus and out G'lox: This was recorded in San Jose during the Tent City situation in the winter of ' The ABC Cap Cities affiliate made a video of the locals in shelters and souplines and dubbed my recording over it on the 6: The following day, the producer one of their more senior guys was sacked and I saw him a week later on a weeny local independent station.
It doesn't usually pay to create politically critical art. Just ask the Mogambo Guru if he's bringing down a Wall St analyst's salary, and watch him turn a rainbow of colors while his blood pressure oscillates!
With all the new PM and commodity funds hitting the streets, I wonder how long it will be before somebody oversubscribes one a la the Producers and the commodity fund managers join the SM and MF in their rogue's gallery.
This has all the earmarkings of a scandal being born. Call CPM for a quote! The big contrast lies in the future: In late , the Fed was nearing the end of its policy accommodation, whereas today the central bank seems content to stay on hold for some time to come.
In late , the deficit was already on its way down; it had averaged 4. America's net private saving rate for consumers and businesses, combined -- net of depreciation currently stands at 5.
And that underscores one of the biggest imbalances of all -- the massive US current-account deficit that is required to attract such foreign capital.
In 2Q03, the US current-account deficit stood at 5. American households have led the charge in this regard. Even though nominal interest rates have fallen to year lows by some measures, debt service remains uncomfortably high when compared with the jobless recovery of the early s.
According to Federal Reserve statistics, interest expenses as a share of disposable personal income stood at A similar pattern is evident in a new broader gauge just released by the Fed -- a measure of "financial obligations," which also includes auto lease payments, home rental expenses, and homeowner insurance and property tax payments; this metric stood at The item that stands out besides the well known deficits, is the increasing amount of otherwise disposal income that is being required to service the ever growing mountain of debt.
Disturbingly as Roach points out the willingness of Americans to opt for higher level of leverage. Low IR have encouraged consumers to refinance and you the proceeds to 1 consolidate debts 2 support stock market investments replacing previously obtained margin debt on the high flyers such as Microsoft, Cisco - thus the day trader has turned out to be a 'long term investor' 3 Plunge additional investments in 'low priced!
The Feds are couting on increased inventory levels to keep the 'flamed' economy going. If this does not materialize the last stimuli tax rebates Q2 is the last "additional flame up" - Its doubtful the Whitehouse is going to "tolerate" higher IR in the months ahead - Lets stay tuned.
I bet you get lots of company around you now. The DMR has finally been updated a little late today. I wish I had more time to proof read the report but there was so much info coming in that I focused on the more interesting aspects of today's markets.
I think I will soon need a larger "hard drive" at this rate. Still, gold finished higher while the equities went wild only to finish nearly flat and the US dollar crumbled further against the euro.
I expect to see some odd analyses from dubious economic statistics tomorrow and the rest of the week, so trading could get quite "interesting" in the short term.
OpenDocument "South Africa's mining companies continued their white-knuckle ride into the red today as the rand soared to its highest level in almost four years".
Why is it that Mbeki's government is still clinging to relatively high interest rates and as such inviting vulture hedge funds to continue their Rand carry trade activities.
The SA economy, and not the mining sector alone is suffering the consequences. A country hit by economic and severe HIV malaise has not learned the lessons of Argentina, SE-Asia, Russia and other similar currency debacles - and the country won't be able to afford it any longer.
My guess is that a turning point may be nigh - and the carry trade specs will try to exit all at once - in particular when the POG starts to bound in leaps - even vs the SAR.
As a born contrarian, I would feel we're close to a reversal! Wouldn't wanna miss that show - cb2. You know how, in gest, when you say something you have to say, but don't want people to understand it so you cough when you are saying it, well, this morning, the young lad who gives the economy talk perhaps from WSJ sort of did that when he said, "dollar" and "reserve currency status" all in one sentence.
It was one of those things someone says that has great significance but because there was no ensuing explanation or discussion of that concept, the viewer was left going with the flow of conversation and not returning to what could have been a very promising discussion or concept.
As such, the idea of the US dollar as losing world reserve status has now been trial balooned on cnbc. Whether we hear of this from them again, I guess that is to be seen.
For those of us on hear, wasn't it about three years ago now maybe two that we all had these great in depth discussions about this? So, does that mean that mainstreem TV is about three years behind our discussions?
Kind of sad really. Powell warns Putin not to intervene in Georgia pipeline-corridor! In a possible easing of tensions between the world's top and fifth-largest economies, Chinese soybean buyers have indicated they would visit Chicago in two weeks and meet with grain companies to possibly sign purchase contracts.
The news was cheered by grains traders, who rallied soy futures at the Chicago Board of Trade in the hope that China, the world's top soy importer and the No.
Grains analyst Bill Nelson of A. Edwards said the visit would help "ease tensions between two major trading partners". China however has yet to reschedule a visit by its wheat buyers to the United States that was also scrapped when Washington slapped import quotas on Chinese textiles.
GWB backing off the steel tarrifs eases some of the mounting trade tensions. Now let's get those Chinese undies back on the shelves. Progress is seen as slow and bumpy, but most believe a turnaround has occurred and many look forward to a much stronger , they say.
What's still in the way is an underlying reluctance to hire permanently, Linda Paulk, president of Snelling Personnel Services, a national recruiter based in Dallas, sees a persistent reluctance by management to hire people full-time.
She noted an increase in orders during November, but it was a bumpy ride. He described the improvement as "a quick thaw" rather than a "roaring" rebound.
Many nurses have become the primary wage earners for their families. They no longer have the luxury of jumping to temporary agencies and taking shifts when they can get them.
We're in our third year of this, so you've got to believe this industry is going to come back. Thanks for the soybean news. I was hoping they would come back and counting on it as the USA is the only source in quantity of the beans that China has to have.
They've been buying cotton and copper too and the last two weeks have seen huge corn export orders with "unknown" listed as their destination.
Unless soybean sales abate through price rationing? Yes, and the point here is that China has vast needs which may only be filled by those who hold and are willing to sell the items needed.
Where will China recycle their dollars? I believe that China is now receiving the majority of our exported trade deficit dollars.
If China decides to exchange paper for physical gold, who has enough to fill the order? Would these sources be willing to sell? Does anyone know how much gold China is accumulating now or in the recent past?
I have the notion that eventually China must unpeg its currency from the U. They'll not want to be holding huge amounts of dollar fiat after their own currency is free from a set exchange, right?
Rich I truly believe that China's demand for commodities will hit harder than a trade war. That way, no one accuses them of direct currency manipulation.
Besides, in the long run, it helps the trade deficit, as well. I noticed the tarriff rumors began while the Chinese delegations were here talking to all sorts of companies about major purchases, i.
Boeing, Chrysler, Deere, etc. Do some folks NOT want the trade deficit rebalanced? How sad this whole imbalance has become. Limits will probably be placed on many commodities most especially gold , but under-the-counter transactions might start separating paper from physical in many markets beyond just gold.
The question is WHEN? One cannot buy futures without a date of expiriation, and continuously rolling them over gets costly, as well. O, but Smeagol would not be in ssuch a lofty place unless Slingshot had not possted his guess firsst - he NAILED our guess, he did, even as we typed ours!
So we had to guess again! I'm on the long side of most everything that China is now buying or is likely to buy in the near future.
I have reasons to believe this will also include corn and perhaps silver, both of which China has been exporting in the past.
The flip side is to short most of what China exports, like U. Jim Rogers has voiced this same opinion. He is a well known name so he gets the credit for this view even though many of us saw it coming.
So many of the reasons that the POG has been rising and will continue to rise also are directly applicable to most physical commodities.
It's partly the currency depreciation. The POG can be used as a barometer for many things other than just the purchasing power of currency. Many economists view gold primarily as an indictor usually contrary to what they're expecting, predicting or hoping for.
Also, I've hear many justify opinions based on the POG's trend. It's amazing what they'll use the POG to try to prove!
They'll probably change their tune later on to say that the rising POG was the cause rather than just an indictor of conditions of future economic misfortunes.
Gold will not answer the charges, never has. This may be quite a long term affair. I do not trade the currency exchanges as I don't like the unseen risk, always present, imposed by the intriques of politics but rumor has it that both Buffett and Soros are short the dollar.
Soros also claims to be long gold. I believe Buffett still holds at least 89 million ounces of physical silver in London.
The Yuan may indeed be a force to be reckoned with in the future. If, as some speculate, the Yuan will not be backed by many dollar reserves in the future, well, what then?
After last month's dismal sales, I'm just wondering if current sales are finding buyers? What does the richest man in Hong Kong have to do with gold?
Group Menatep, Yukos' parent company, issued a statement Tuesday evening denying a Wall Street Journal report that it had agreed to cede control of Yukos to Roman Abramovich, Sibneft's aggressive owner, in a bid to save the merger.
The agreement between core shareholders of Yukos and Sibneft Under the terms of the merger, agreed to in April, Sibneft gets to choose the chairman of the board of directors for the new company, while core Yukos shareholders get to name the management team.
In its statement, however, Group Menatep did not rule out that the agreement could not be changed in the future. A source close to Yukos has said the move was a Kremlin-backed bid to force the company's owners, who are reeling from a five-month legal assault, into handing over control to Abramovich and his partners, who are seen as more loyal to President Vladimir Putin.
Two core Yukos shareholders, Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, are in jail on charges of fraud and tax evasion, and most of the rest have fled the country.
Here are a couple of interesting quotes taken from an interesting read: It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Palladium has not made a move yet,its way off its highs. MIGHT be a chance for profits there. Will toss my two cents worth into replying to your question.
After reading a few thousand words with usually the author taking one side or the other of your question I have only been able to wrap my simple mind around the fact that both are right.
I don't think it can be boiled down to a simple skins vs shirts game. The dollar has ample reasons for it's continued move down, and gold, after a 20 year beating has plenty of reasons to continue the upside trend, reasons other than the dollar.
Thanks for the Telegraph link. The euro bankers seek to balance the concerns of their bosses with those of the laborers and politicians?
Belgium must know more. There seems no end to the intriguing news items here and the excellent work by the owners and volunteer staff in this alternative media.
Lastly, billionaire George Soros committed to unseating this administration according to the Independent in Great Britain. How sincere could this reportedly expensive effort be if it were actually financing the socialists and various globalist interests?
Besides that, if he succeeds, it won't be without a lot of help from gravity, momentum and dizzying cyclic and centripetal circumstances, ad nauseum- gotta run!
According to Steven Mathews, commodity strategist at Tudor Investment Corporation, the hedge fund, the gold market is so dramatically oversupplied that it has ceased to behave as a currency.
Mathews said relative shortage of readily accessible stocks of a commodity allowed for speculative trading activity, a feature notably absent in the gold market.
Gold comes in at a staggering 7, days. A fairly interesting article but as usual there is some moron like Steven Mathews who is quoted about "huge central bank reserves".
There are several fallacies that should be addressed here but I will only touch on a couple due to some other commitments I have right now.
The fundamentals for gold are especially strong as less above ground gold per person exists today than at any time in recorded history and therefore is more rare than ever before.
It will become even more rare as less will be mined for a number of reasons and the "easy pickins" are already plucked.
Former used car salesmen types like Steven Mathews are more of an embarrassment for the investment community when they don't do their homework.
I may revisit this issue again if time permits but I just browsed the article in MK's update page. Besides I will have something to say about the "smart money" and "investment partnerships" in the next couple of days as I have been doing some work lately as a consultant to some well heeled investors looking at alternative investments.
As Mk Alluded to a couple of days ago, premiums on precious metals are going to rise soon and I may add some insight as to why, and why you and I are several steps ahead of the crowd already but time is running short for accumulation at still decent prices.
Now that takes the cake. I truly enjoy these contest given by our Host. The contest is gamemanship at its best. Wait too long and you miss your spot.
With todays world, at any given time things could change drasticly affecting the POG. I find the entries of exurberance are countered with temperance and that is healthy in our education of the gold market.
Our expectations are well founded, but our timing may be wanting. Good Luck to All Slingshot Bulls do not look for it to pull back far below the historic psychological level, although profit taking and a bounce in the dollar are risks.
Going higher in US dollar terms? Will there be occasional pullbacks? But realize that the US dollar is going to get weaker and the "smart money" has got the point while the Lemmings are listening to the carnival barkers and Wall Street pitchmen for stocks and bonds.
This is a long term several years bull market in precious metals and nothing will stop this freight train now. If the Euro is pegged to gold.
How many Euro's will it take? How high can POO go? At what point will POO stabilise as gold continues to climb?
If so, what is the impact? Can not connect the dots. Gandalf and Omar finally caught up with the army of Goldbugs that now formed back into a line to fit the road before them.
That's a rather bearish view. Maybe I am giving more credence to market manipulation than to market forces.
But my experience of crime leads me that way. Some of the greatest criminals in London, far worse than the late Professor Moriarty, are those who not only exploit war but even foster war so that they can exploit it.
And these criminals are all too often welcomed into our highest society because of their wealth. But we mustn't get dragged into depression by Wells's little game.
Why should a contest in the early 21st century use money from the late 19th century? Have they no reliable money of their own?
That is the question? Technical Approach From a simple technical standpoint, one can apply at least two approaches: Extrapolate the primary up-trend in POG that has endured for the last two years.
How much faith can one put in this result? Let's look first at the "scree slope" of the USDX. Isn't a scree slope the gradient of the accumulated loose rocks at the base of an eroding mesa?
Sure, but a well-defined and enduring slope results nonetheless! The principal "emergent property" from piling up rocks and sand. So it is with the US dollar.
They are impossible to measure or predict individually, but a stunning property emerges - a characteristic down-trend in the USDX, that persists for as long as the basic ingredients stay the same.
I am assuming that the basic ingredients stay the same until September 1. I am reassured because major "scree slopes" in the USDX over the past 30 years have persisted for several years and this one has only been going for a year-and-a-half and looks like being a beauty!
How about the up-trend in the POG? Pretty much the same deal. Unless there is a major seismic shift between now and September we can expect the trend to continue.
But you never know and it is impossible to predict. But let's have a go anyway. What does one regard as "fundamental" in pricing gold?
The decline in the dollar is probably pretty well locked in. It might be moderated a little by the EU and other countries lowering interest rates before September, but that is likely to be offset by another cut in US rates.
Hence the slide is on for quite a while. The US rate cut will probably be 50 basis points and that will encourage another round of house refinancings and ensure that the big bond bull is kept alive for at least the next three months.
Some money may even flow back into shares, but the historical sequence of equity market corrections augurs strongly for a major sell-off before September.
Also, while a rate cut will encourage US nationals to stay in the housing and bond markets, it will have the opposite effect on international traders who are already seeing their profits from bonds turn strongly negative from low interest rates and foreign exchange losses.
Their interest in the housing sector may remain, but they would be concerned about its teetering top-heaviness and liquidity concerns should it fail.
We haven't mentioned other "fundamentals", like supply and demand. Take supply first, and that is relatively easy I think.
New mine production will go on much the same and there probably will not be any dramatic change in the current trends by miners to reduce forward sales and close out some of their hedged positions.
The Washington Agreement is still in effect. Activity outside that accord will probably continue to see net acquisition, rather than net disbursement of gold reserves.
The US position on gold is as unclear as ever, but the bias will continue to be away from leasing and more towards covering exposed positions.
Recycling of scrap will probably go on as normal. Well, that is where the uncertainty lies. Few would deny that gold as an investment and preserve of wealth has received increasing publicity in the last twelve months.
Accessibility to gold investments of one form or another is increasing. Gold is probably entering portfolios with renewed confidence and the talk amongst "people in the know" is of a sustained, long-term bull market in gold.
Bull markets being what they are, one would expect some "irrational exuberance" along the way, but how much of this will occur before 1 September?
Also, "fear" has not set in yet in the equity markets and the "Greenspan put" will probably stave off that phenomenon for a while yet.
Demand will continue to ramp up in China. In India, although the wedding season will be ending by September, many dealers may be wary of a runaway in the price of gold before next year.
I therefore suspect that seasonal demand may not slacken as much as normal. What about "demand shocks"? China revaluing or floating its currency?
Terrorist attack in the US? Maybe, but God forbid. Major bank failures in Japan? Major US bullion bank caught short? Not much talk of that lately, but the risk is probably still there.
Very real possibility if Mr. Bush and his colleagues cannot get the economy moving in time. Yes, some premium might appear in the gold price from that contingency before September, but probably not much.
Where does that leave us on the fundamentals? Better than Fed-speak, but still not very clear. The dollar also rises to its highest level in four months against the Yen.
The Dow Jones sheds points on the troubling news to ; Kudlow and Cramer claim the market will surge back once the true nature of the "bluster" is understood.
The last two weeks of June saw a choppy but steady rise in the gold price as the dollar continued its swoon against foreign currencies. The USDI fell to Rumors of problems developing in the financial markets with currency and interest rate spreads moving to adverse extremes against several large unnamed financial institutions, but rumored to be located in New York, Germany, and Japan.
By July 4th, several congressional, as well as United Nations' meetings had taken place to discuss the Korean situation. All agreed on one thing--Now was the time for talk.
President Bush also chose this historic occasion to talk by television to the American people. Telling us all again, how we have always stood in times of trouble to defend freedom, whenever it was threatened.
Well, that was clear enough. He continued, "We must first sit down with the North Koreans, in an attempt to voice our concern. Therefore, the United States will open dialog with representatives of the North Korean government as soon a possible [something we had previously said we would not do unilaterally] to bring lasting Peace and Stability to the region.
Later in the week the first estimate of second quarter growth was released showing a GDP up-tick of 2. At about this time, no one knows for sure but the decision maker Alan Greenspan, stepping out of character, decided to make a guest appearance on "Larry King Live".
Don't ask me why, only he knows that answer. Although publicly supported for re-appointment by the President, some said it was the first stop on Al's "farewell tour".
Anyway, the guest appearance was on Thursday, July 24th. A record audience tuned in to see "The Maestro" and fellow market crooner, Louis Rukyser exchange notes with "Mr.
The audience that night saw their beloved Chairman, Mr. Greenspan, "live" as never before; he was witty; he was even comically engaging, exchanging clips with "Rukey", and acting almost giddy at the economies recently reported performance.
At a point near the show's end. King looked perplexed, pondering the comments meaning, as if thinking and wishing to say: Here are those three, yucking it up, like a bunch of drunken frat brothers at a fifty-year reunion.
They should have shown a little more concern for the poor folks that lost all their money in the Markets. The following day, the markets gave their assessment of "The Maestro's" performance--Two thumbs down!
Shedding nearly all of the post 4th of July rally and ending at on the Dow. News of a new record trade deficit, and a record slump in auto sales helped to push down the Chairman's scores.
Outside of the USA Gold Forum's vigilant membership, few were aware that the Comptroller of the Currency, in a highly unusual move, had swooped in to examine both of New York's largest banks simultaneously.
Obviously though, some gold traders had also taken note. At the end of the day, Greenspan said that he used a poor choice of words, when referring to "prosperity," but had felt a little light-headed at the time.
Both Rookies and King said they couldn't explain it either, but both said they had felt almost "high" during the television broadcast. After reviewing tape of the show, all three, it was noticed, were drinking much more liberally than would normally be expected, from their French bottled waters.
The bottles were located and sure enough, tested positive for a mild hallucinogenic drug. Tom Ridge declared it, "An act of financial terrorism.
On August 4th, The one-month anniversary of the President's "Let's sit down with the North Koreans speech," They abruptly said all talks were off They did not trust the United States They were armed and well prepared for war They as a sovereign nation would decide their future They welcomed support in the name of freedom from any country willing to stand against the United States.
The following day Iran and Syria both issued support for North Korea and admitted having nuclear weaponry--nothing more than that. Within a day, Israel sealed its borders and declared that any provocation was a act of war.
Russia's Vladimir Putin spoke in Paris. Only the United States can prevent it. Gold futures lock-limited up three consecutive days.
A spokes man said, "because of computer tampering and the necessity to protect traders from the unscrupulousness of speculators.
I wasn't watching them that much, but they crashed to about 6, on the Dow within days, and kept heading South. The news of financial insolvencies and the inability of market makers and banks to meet obligations now were causing the public to "run" from the markets and banks.
The FDIC had joined in the New York bank investigations and stated that a congressional "pay out" might be needed to meet legal mandates in certain situations.
Rumsfeld must have seen his face reflected in the new foreign enemies and blinked. He demanded, "The United Nations must act!
This from the new town Marshall, who only months before had been looking for new gunslingers to blast?
The world froze for two weeks. The USDI plummeted to Then at 8 A. The device, believed to be aboard one of the many luxury yachts in the area, leveled the beachfront Hotel Strip and immediately killed and estimated , people.
The following day, Monday, none of the markets opened-nor did they open for the remainder of the month. I visited the local trader in my small town.
He figured physical gold at somewhere around a thousand dollars and ounce, but he didn't know for sure--didn't seem to care. Nothing seemed to matter now.
I don't even know if you'd get your money. And even if you did, you might not want it after a while. Because gold's probably just going to keep going up But this is not a time for celebration with the markets in disarray.
The Administration and all of Washington is in full panic deployment. No one could have predicted the financial devastation and fallout that began when the former head of security at the Fort Knox Gold Repository revealed that "large quantities of gold bars" had been shipped out of the facility over the past several years to unknown destinations.
This former employee who was under oath to maintain secrecy about all aspects of the depository had become intrigued with several of the internet gold sites where the buzz in recent years has been about the alleged manipulation and suppression of the price of gold to create the illusion of a "strong dollar".
It was June 16th when Robert Smith, a year government employee of several different agencies wrote to his Congressman, Ron Paul of Texas, and revealed the ongoing reduction of the gold in our largest National Gold Repository.
Miller suggested that it was part of the effort to subdue gold and brace the dollar. Interviewed on several financial news outlets, Miller made a convincing case for the allegations and got the attention of investors around the world.
Congressman Paul, himself a gold advocate, demanded an audit by Treasury that would be overseen by a congressional delegation.
At first the Administration dug in their heels, denied the charges and refused the audit. But like Watergate, the denials only brought more criticism and pressure to reveal the truth.
The media, at first not much interested in the story, became fully involved as the financial markets began to react violently to the allegations.
The Administration, seeing the futility of further denials, finally confirmed on July 25th that shipments of gold from Fort Knox had occurred as part of a long-term program to reduce the US gold reserve.
The financial community was caught off guard by this sudden revelation and there was instant chaos in the gold markets that quickly spread to currencies, commodities, stocks, derivatives and even interest rates.
As we celebrate Labor Day the financial landscape is littered with the confetti of worthless paper and firms that had so recently been given great value.
Now the term "precious metal" has been given a renewed meaning to a humbled nation. Gold has suddenly become the standard by which other assets are valued.
With the closing of the COMEX and other official gold exchanges there is no market that establishes an official price.
The value of physical gold can be measured only by comparison with what people are willing to offer for it from day to day.
The government is in a frantic effort to reconfigure the dollar and is threatening to make gold illegal as they did in This has only served to strengthen gold and make the Euro the currency of choice with US producers and consumers.
The most recent rumor is that the US is negotiating to become a member of the Euro system because OPEC will no longer accept the dollar.
This Labor Day is the painful turning point for Americans used to the special status of the dollar.
It is labor that toils to mine, extract, refine, and ship gold. It is labor that builds wealth and fortunes. It is then bankers that cheat laborers out of their wealth by all the tried and true sleight of hand methods.
By issuing worthless fiat that can never be a store of value but rather a depreciating asset. By confiscating gold 70 years ago and using it as a weapon against laborers.
By publicly deriding gold as a "barbarous relic" while secretly knowing it is their only salvation. By devising paper instruments to manipulate and control the POG.
There are many other schemes to mention that would be too lengthy for a simple essay, suffice it to say all schemes eventually fail. Hedonic deflators, quality improvements and superior technology are trumpeted as deflation adjustments but nowhere does cheapened product, smaller portions, and inferior service get any consideration.
Whether it is a home, car, or pair of jeans products are cheaper and poorer service is the norm. This is another hidden wealth destroyer. The old axiom about an ounce of gold being able to buy a fine men's tailored suit is still true.
It still isn't as fine tailored as suits were years ago. The service while good by today's standard is still inferior to back then. To me that represents the true value of gold.
Our Gross Public Debt should have increased by a similar amount. Frightening possibilities for all holders of paper wealth. According to a Canadian official, Bush also said the value of the dollar was not up to him.
It is Federal Reserve chief Mr. Alan Greenspan," the Canadian official told reporters in Evian. The Federal Reserve determines interest rates, while the Treasury typically comments on the dollar.
Agreed, the president's moronic comments at the G8 conference were not exactly surprising but defied the reality of the situation.
The direction of the dollar is out of his hands. Treasury Secretary John Snow jumped in with "me too" comments this afternoon. Perhaps he got a nasty phone call from France, who knows.
But neither of them have any real control over Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan or the market. Bush wants the dollar to be "strong" then he had better reverse the soaring budget, trade, and current account deficits as well as pay off the soaring national debt.
Somehow I don't see that ever happening. I know and do understand how enormously difficult it is to "understand" the new, coming Gold!
It also took me a lot of efforts to reach some level of understanding and Gold-insights. Yes, fellow goldmeisters, FOA is very VERY heavy stuff and written in a cryptic language.
And I remain surprised that there is nobody out there who even attempted to re-write this whole thing. Answering your questions would take quite some hours of concentration as to be complete.
Certainly because of my poor English. The euro wants to take Gold out of its "money" association!
The purpose of Free Physical Gold is to become a tangible representative of all the wealth this globe is producing.
Free Gold is un-manipulated A wealth-reserve-asset that evolves with all the wealth of the world and not with one particular fiat that wishes to claim reserve status.
Gold is the only "REAL" reserve. Gold is NOT a derivative of dollar-fiat-paper. Those trillions of dollar-reserves are NOT representing the globe's wealth.
And it is the dollar-system that contains Gold from doing so representing wealth. Gold is ment for storing your surplusses and function as a transferable wealth tangible.
Fiat is not suitable for doing this because of its permanent depreciation. That's why Gold must be contained.
The euro project wants to promote Gold as a permanent appreciating wealth reserve. That's why the ECB has introduced the marking to market of its goldreserves in anticipation of Free Gold that evolves, valuewise, with the total, wealth that we are producing and wish to consolidate in something tangible for all seasons and times.
The dollar or any other currency can never, ever compete, permanently, with Free Gold! The present dollar-standard has evolved into a debtmeter!
The euro as an alternative fiat is will become as worthless as the dollar over time if the euro-system should copy the dollar-system with unfree, contained Gold!!!
But this will NOT be the case! The ECB has made its intentions, for Freeing Gold, very clear with openly exposing its goldreserves to the present dollar-paper-gold-market pricing.
Even one gram of Gold could theorethically revalue as to represent a bigger and bigger amount of wealth on the only condition that one has a free Physical goldmarket.
The dollar hates Gold, wich you all agree. The euro loves Gold OK guys, for the last time Euroland's financial media have never, ever bashed Gold in private possession!
On the contrary, all our banks do sell Gold, everywhere, anytime Any fiat-digit-system, for trade settlement, that tries to imitate some new form of gold-backing will always remain unworkable, managed, frauded, flawed!
Yes, we need enough political will to take that step to Free Gold! This political will will reach enough critical mass when the dollar-system calf is drowning Fixing a new reference-POG is non-sense.
It is another attempt to keep the dollar-system alive. Free-Gold that is everyones instrument to control all those who desire to control you!
That's why the dollar-system hates the euro-project, wich is perfectly understandable. Output from western Canada, a region that supplies 20 percent of U.
That could mean even higher prices next winter, forcing some industrial users to switch to other fuels or curtail production.
About three-quarters of the growth in U. Setbacks due to weather have been compounded by a shortage of crews, drillers said.
Construction of the oil sands facility in Fort McMurray, Alberta, is drawing away skilled labor, as are projects in other countries. Without enough skilled operators, drilling rigs can't be run safely, Precision's Swartout said.
No surprise as I have hammered away at this before. Worse yet is that drill rig activity is actually up in Canada over last year but no real production gains while storage lags at critical levels.
The US is not much better off either as drill rig counts are woefully low in the face of the crisis. Today oil and gas prices are ticking higher but no substantial increase in rig activity.
This will obviously hurt an already crippled US economy with higher energy costs. The widening gap would send the dollar into a tailspin and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to keep capital coming into the U.
But it's started to happen in the last year, and unless the underlying conditions change it's going to continue.
Two-thirds of the increase in the current account gap last year stemmed from a rise in the U. At the same time, net investment income fell as receipts from abroad fell more rapidly than payments on foreign investments in the U.
Moronic government officials aside, the dollar must weaken as there is absolutely nothing there to support it. Besides, to stimulate economic growth the Fed must provide massive liquidity and that translates into a weaker dollar and higher inflation.
Something that the Fed does not want to do but must do. They have no other choice as they are out of bullets and they are surrounded on all sides.
Unemployed workers, struggling for traction in a stagnant labor market, are slogging through some of the longest job searches in 20 years.
The time the average jobless worker remains unemployed stretched to nearly 20 weeks in April. That is up from about 12 weeks in early , and is the longest since late , according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Many searches take even longer. Nearly 22 percent of unemployed workers, 2 million people, have been out of a job more than six months.
That is double the number of two years ago. About 13 percent have been out for a year or more. This Friday we get the unemployment data for May.
Oh yeah, the BLS is changing their statistical approach for unemployment yet again. This should be amusing if not totally bogus.
Funds were seen buying into the close of the session as skepticism crept into the market about the president's "strong dollar policy" comments and less that stellar data from the ISM manufacturing index and rising oil and natural gas prices.
Thanks Black Blade, and congratulations to the essay contest winners! Coming in the week leading up to the start of the summer driving season, when U.
Signs the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could be preparing to announce an output cut at a meeting next week have bolstered the price strength.
Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said last week that the cartel might cut its ceiling by up to one million bpd at the June 11 meeting, but any decision hinges on the extent and speed of recovery of Iraq's battered oil industry.
N , the world's largest gold producer, said Monday that almost half of its offer to pay 50 cents on the dollar for outstanding unprofitable gold sales contracts with its Australian mining subsidiary had been accepted by the hedge counterparties.
Looks like Newmont stuck it to the bankers. In the current economic environment the bankers and investment houses are taking a beating as companies are backing those who bankrolled operations into a corner.
This has been especially true of energy companies since the Enron fallout. I would not be surprised if other miners with mine specific hedges were to renegotiate some contracts down the road.
Just wait as the "weapons of financial mass destruction" aka derivatives blow up. Of course the only thing attracting the fish were "gold" colored Kastmasters.
Maybe a good sign. A little "golden" fried trout on a bed of "golden" safron rice with a "golden" ale for dinner tonight. Off to the gym! However, the climb in home prices slowed to its weakest quarterly pace in five years, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said.
This could be an worrisome sign for the economy, which has relied on the housing sector for support while other areas, like manufacturing, have struggled.
I'm not sure if anyone is interested in downloading this type of information but thought maybe Belgian, Cobra, Randy, Michael or others might find some value here so I'll post them.
As usual, they are in PDF form. Commodity contracts3 83 75 78 85 Gold 21 20 28 28 Other 62 55 51 57 Forwards and swaps Bush and Chirac shook hands and had a courteous private meeting, but each stuck to his rival view of world order, and the U.
In a surprise move, France announced late on Monday that all eight leaders had agreed, in response to the dollar's recent sharp fall, that currency stability was a key condition for growth and they would monitor market movements closely.
It appeared to be the strongest signal on currencies issued in the name of the G8 since central banks intervened jointly in September to support a weak euro.
But officials said the position on currencies, designed to calm market volatility after a 12 percent fall in the dollar against the euro this year, would not be put in writing.
Participants quoted Bush as saying he did not want a weak dollar and would not use the currency as an economic weapon.
Interest rates are low and the FOMC talks of going lower, repurchase agreements rising geometrically as the MCDI keeps falling far below its day moving average, the DOW is barely able to stay above 8, even with large and increasing RP support.
One can see great trouble ahead even without factoring in the Middle East turmoil, a burgeoning Euro-centric economic coalition, oil producer threats to re-price their crude in Euros or any of the other traditional economic indicators that we know to be badly deteriorating.
Previously effective RP utilization seems no longer effective. Intervention in otherwise free markets historically leads to scarcity and falling liquidity.
One need only look to the price control regime of Richard Nixon for examples of this type of government interventional failure.
The penultimate failure in then Fed Chairman Arthur Burn? Today the Fed seems rapidly headed towards a similar event.
Considering the offer was for 50 Cents on the Dollar on Yandal's hedge position, doesn't it highlight the weak position these counterparties may find themselves entangled in?
As an aside, such things tend to happen, when the messianic message as Joe Gutnik claimed takes priority over common or business opr even ethical sense.
IMO, this tough take it or leave it stance of NEM might mark the beginning of the demise of gold hedging practises for both producers and bullion banks - while the de-hedging of producer forwards have been further accelerating in the first quarter.
Lastly the Dollar enjoyed only the briefest of all dead cat bounces - thanks to the briefest statements of GWB at the G8 Evian meetings The call to arms, eh?
GOLD becomes more distinct by the day - cb2. Forbes offers a much less upbeat description of the meetings than BBC. I wonder if anything can be read into that.
If the purchasing power of the dollar is declining, then wouldn't leasing or borrowing dollars to use immediately to purchase something that is appreciating in value make good sense?
Why not call this a dollar-carry-trade? Because of the market stress a low overnight rate might cause, many economists on Wall Street think the Fed could turn to so-called unconventional policy tools once the rate reached 0.
Dallas Fed Research Director Harvey Rosenblum has said Fed policymakers would discuss "unconventional" tools at their next meeting on June The Fed currently conducts open market operations in short-term securities only.
They warn, however, that calibrating such operations could prove difficult. But the arrows that remain are less familiar and, perhaps, not quite as straight as the ones that have already been fired.
But they cautioned that a policy of foreign exchange intervention would, in effect, be conducting a monetary contraction in the economies of U.
My simple pragmatic, trader-type mind is not always fired up enough to fully comprehend all your words, although I often try. A total economic understanding or as near as I can get to that, is much more difficult than trading.
After reading your , I found myself thinking or postulating from your thoughts that..??.. Am I catching on here or am I way off as usual? Excerpted from "The Straits Times" The French leader was more reserved, avoiding any such direct personal praise for Mr Bush, but expressing total support for his efforts to bring peace to the Middle East.
Their minute meeting, which the White House billed as a 'courtesy call', was one of the most scrutinised encounters at this year's summit.
It followed on their brief exchanges on Sunday, characterised by a cool handshake, stock smiles for the press and a Bush gift of three books on Native American culture.
Despite the upbeat signs, many areas for disagreement remain - notably on trade, agriculture and managing the post-Cold War world.
Mr Chirac also champions a vision of 'a multipolar world', where US dominance is kept in check by Europe and emerging powers such as China and India.
Some observers believe that US-French ties may not recover fully until both leaders leave office. They were very close to divorce.
The Republican-led government agency voted to allow the broadcast networks to own television stations that reach a combined 45 percent of the national audience, up from 35 percent.
I wonder what he meant by "swift death"? That's a very strange way to talk about administering a public trust.
Maybe two viewpoints in these troubled times is just one too many. Hey, Rupert Murdoch did such a fine job disseminating war info and pretending to be an all-American, we should let him run the rest of the US media, as well.
By the way, be extra grateful for this fine forum and our Hosts, as political dissent may soon find its outlets more and more difficult to obtain. I'm also glad that Cavan Man found an even more diverse opinion from "the Straits Times".
I don't pretend to know how the leaders are actually reacting, but I was intrigued by the different media slants on opposing sides of The Pond.
I'm a firm believer in the adage that one can tell a politician is lying based on the movement of his lips. June 2 Bloomberg -- Mexico may sell its first euro- denominated bonds in more than two years as early as this week as the European currency's gain against the dollar spurs demand.
Mexico has approached investors about a sale of year bonds through Citigroup Inc. Demand among some European investors for euro-denominated assets has risen amid the common currency's You're a good thinker and I am not, so let's see if we can pound this answer out, Ari-style!
Whaddaya think a foreign-held U. CBs hold a lotta them, yes? I will purport to know nothing on this matter until you instruct me under your gentle whip.
Interestingly, today's Au rally preceded the SM selloff by about two hours. All of the above. Securities and Exchange Commission had begun a formal investigation of how the world's largest computer company accounted for some revenue in and IBM shares fell almost 3 percent on electronic trading network Instinet after the announcement, which raised the specter of the accounting scandals of Enron, WorldCom and others that have undermined investor confidence.
A plumber to comment on the electrical wiring? Thanks Cavan Man for the news Refco bought Lind-Waldock a few years ago much to my chagrin but both are commodities brokers, not stock brokers.
At the risk of offending Socrates with my premature comments, let me remind you of some standard banking ops. Look at March for an illustrative sketch on the way the world has worked for many years -- the continuation of which in good faith is on borrowed time.
Foreigner companies, with the CBs representing the ultimate decision makers, can choose to hold this excess in dollars or perhaps more logically their native currency.
Then, depending on its various motivations of price stability versus export advantage, a foreign central bank may choose to absorb these dollars into its pile of currency reserves asset side of ledger and newly emit a corresponding value of domestic national currency.
In this circumstance, it is a subsequential no-brainer to turn these sterile dollar assets into interest bearing assets by lending them back to the United States Government as a loan represented in the form of U.
Of course, the international governments and CBs of the world may adopt a policy shift whereby "enough is enough! We've all gotta get this through our heads.
After all, what would be the point of that??? A lot of effort for no material improvement??? I don't think so! The direction is clear Catch the wave of the future.
You said, "all our banks do sell Gold everywhere, anytime.. All you can buy is certificates. Are you telling us that it just isn't so?
The article referenced by Misetich , "U. Debt in Asia Has Its Costs", began with an interesting quote from Keynes, "If you owe the bank pounds, you're the one with the problem.
But if you owe a million pounds, the bank's the one with the problem. The other leaders also prefer a strong dollar as unrealistic as it is , insofar as a strong dollar protects their precious export market.
Well, as the U. As it expands further into the stratosphere, the debt owed by the U. At the G8, it seems, a plan involving "mutual advantage" is being sought between the debtor U.
Morgan went on to describe how that's the type of spending behavior that follows with the loss of purchasing power.
Nobody at the G8 dared use that term. But if one connects the various dots that get uncovered from time to time, a not-so-wholesome economic picture emerges quite clearly.
As it is so aptly said, "interesting times". Where America does differ from the UK is in the nature of [the media] industry and the war it is engaged in.
The American media industry is dominated by just a few companies. With the the Federal Communications Commission, under Michael Powell son of Secretary of State Colin Powell , set to relax ownership rules later this month [today, in fact], this consolidation and the lack of choice that goes with it will get worse before it gets better.
And with a war that is endless against a foe that is stateless terror has no nationality , invisible it could be anyone and ubiquitous they could be anywhere , the potential for these media distortions to become both pervasive and permanent is very real indeed.
Certainly a more perilous warning about the media trend than the CNN post, but I would expect no less from the Guardian. However, if we allow dissent to be "demonized", gold ownership may come face-to-face with a desperate battle to save the FIAT currency.
The idea that this even needs to be published is discomforting. Perhaps I am sounding alarmist, but the latest erosions of the Bill of Rights also have some very strong historical analogues, some only a single generation past.
Gold, get you some and bury it deep! Greetings Aristotle, I have another post for you, but this one is about this comment in the post below. How to replace the US as deficeit nation?
If the US does not play this role, how do all the various nations handle thier imbalances? The asian idea floated here today sounds minor league because the main trade beween those nations is with the US.
I am looking for a bridge to another way, but I cannot see it. Taking down the US is not the answer, I am guessing that some joint CB agreement to share the ponzi scheme is the only way to avoid global depression.
Chirac is low on details on how to make this "multipolar world". MK has on his site a quote from DeGaulle, Nice idea, but like Chirac, low on details on how to make it work.
No one here or elsewhere ever mentions that the strong dollar policy is not criticized when Bush mentions it now or earlier.
The other nations prefer it. They are happy that the US plays deficeit nation for the global benefit.
They are ok that the US gets itself into fantastic levels of debt. By that I mean that it has been to thier advantage also.
What is Chirac thinking? And then the EU can run up thier own deficeits till the Chinese take over? MK says he thinks the very top guys are cooperateing.
That would get me again thinking that the future path is cooperative CB embrace of the infinite debt world where CB's will pour money as they see fit.
If not that, then a much uglier world system. A system that no one is articulating yet but they are trying. Dollar Bill and ARI: I think I agree in principle with what you are saying.
A large manufactured article like a vehicle has origins in many countries. The more imbalanced volatile currency exchanges are, the greater the difficulty for both parties to conduct the many transactions necessary to complete the manufacture and sale of the finished goods.
There are few industries that are not multi-national in today's market place. It seems too simplistic to pick an outright winner in the manufacturing arena based on currency exchange.
The oposite side of this is that customers face the reverse challenge of manufacturers in that they must buy goods at an inverse exchange imbalance to the sale.
Countries exporting natural resources have a less complex algorithm of exchange to deal with, except that they often depend on customers for the technology to deliver the resource, so it is not completely unilateral.
In summary, currency exchange imbalances alone do not hinder trade as much as currency volitility, and trade imbalance eventually affects volitility, as we are currently witnessing.
The biggest battle I see is not about exchange rates, but more about exchange reserves. The US dollar has been hugely proliferated as a result of being the world's reserve currency.
Herein lies a large impetus for more volitility. Thanks for that sharp insight Goldilox. I was thinking as I walked the dog, if the Euro actually had a decent gold backing, todays posts indicate otherwise, The slogan on thier fiat could be "In Gold We Trust" Wouldnt a more gold system quickly work to the advantage of China?
If the EU did go the route of a gold tie in, wouldnt those dollars awash in the system, includeing all the more that the fed could just print up electronically in a second, just make mincemeat out of that effort on day one?
Married to the buck? Till death do we Dreams of multipolar divorce court will just make us all poorer? Arent the Arabs, and Persians, iran , stuck also?
Their countries are big welfare states. A global depression will wack them hard. The threat of disturbing the system will probably keep all the players in line.
Politicians in russia, france, germany may grouse and stir up agitation for change, but the Central Bankers will probably not want instability. Will not take any big leaps out of the present system.
I am guessing that the real big currency flows are heavily controlled or able to be controlled when needed. On your foremost point, "isn't it a key issue for a country to work for a lower currency for trade reasons?
It is a political reality that governments find great comfort in a fully employed citizenry. This is true even at the cost to national welfare of spoiling the population's savings through beggar-thy-neighbor type currency depreciation.
But there's a political limit citizen tolerance to the acceptible level cost incurred. That's to say, a trade advantage to support full employment through currency depreciation will not be tolerated or politically acceptible to the degree where the lost purchasing power effectively impoverishes the population.
If many citizens are unemployed they are likely to riot vote officials out of office because they have no purchasing power in the form of income; and by a similar stroke of the brush even the fully employed are likely to fuss if their currency noticeably collapes and their savings and salaries lose significant purchasing power.
Think Asian Contagion or Argentina on that one. Ultimately, the various governmental monetary authorities must strike a fine balance between exporting their nation's goods and their race to the bottom regarding currency valuation.
Further evidence that your hypothesis isn't completely accurate can be found in a few examples to the contrary. Before it structurally failed in its effort a year and a half ago, Argentina tried to halt its long trending currency decline by pegging for a whole decade to the U.
How about the Hong Kong dollar peg as another example to halt a race to the bottom? Think, therefore, we can chalk up some of that perception of yours as coming from observations and residue of a complex international league of semi-independents all struggling together to learn and evolve out of infancy?
That's my shorthand explanation for that bit of "conventional wisdom" folklore. When you then pose this question: If the US does not play this role, how do all the various nations handle their imbalances?
For every nation to complacently continue exporting net wealth for the primary benefit of the United States seems to me to be the most unnatural state of affairs.
And yet, if you can tacitly accept the U. Implement a new system where you set physical Gold at the center of the international reserve structure and you'll take a huge step toward eliminating the longtime exorbitant privilege held by the U.
The Carry Tax Cometh? The Fed is also considering unconventional means if money velocity shrinks. Fed senior vice president Marvin Goodfriend of the Richmond Federal Reserve branch first proposed a study of implementing a "carry tax.
Essentially this tax would be designed to eliminate the problem of zero-bound interest rates. The tax would lower the value of the currency the longer it is held without making a transaction.
In effect, it becomes a negative interest rate, which punishes cash holders for preferring to hold on to their cash.
It would be designed to eliminate the Japanese problem where consumers and investors have preferred to hold on to cash as their assets deflated in the stock and real estate markets.
In my opinion, besides the constitutional problems this would present, it would most assuredly backfire. As the government continues to depreciate the currency, implementing a carry tax would force investors and savers into "things" as they see the value of their assets depreciate such as paper assets and real estate and the value of things they need go up in costs.
People would simply put their money into "things" and avoid paper. The most valuable asset under these conditions would be the only real money that has ever existed throughout history: We may soon be revisiting history as the alchemist take us back to the days of John Law, something I never thought I would see.
However, it looks even more likely in the days ahead more of which will be written about in the future. Unconventional methods to stave off the coming financial disaster.
This is "interesting" reading in tonight's article. We already know that the Fed is desperate after 12 rate cuts that did absolutely nothing and the problems just pile up.
This debt ridden nation is fast approaching the end of the line and if foreign investors bail, then the dollar craps out, while on the other hand as debt piles up and if US investors bail, then the dollar craps out.
Quite a catch we got here. The Fed is outta bullets and all that's really left is to push for rapid massive inflation but even that is a hard pill to swallow.
Aristotle, Hate to make an email type post, give me couple days to respond, have to mull. Discounts will be perhaps most generous in apparel, where inventory growth -- up 8 percent -- was higher than a 2.
That marks the first time in at least a decade that inventory growth is higher than sales growth in apparel, he said. The inventory buildup is extending to other areas including electronics and home furnishings, said Frank Badillo, senior retail economist at Retail Forward, a consulting firm in Columbus, Ohio.
In March, it took 1. People are worried about jobs and the economy. Costs are rising and necessities come first, and many now find themselves stuck deep in debt and are struggling to meet obligations after years of spending like drunken sailors.
To make matters worse many have mortgaged their future by risking the family home to keep spending. It's going to get very ugly. What happened to the widely-predicted post-Iraq slump in crude oil prices?
Back in early March, before the launch of the U. Everyone knew those lofty prices weren't sustainable, and the flat performance of many energy stocks reflected that.
Boy, were they wrong. Gas storage levels remain low and some analysts predict North American production capacity will drop this year, setting the stage for another price spike next winter.
Certainly the energy analysts at Merrill Lynch are convinced that the era of cheap oil is finished. In a page report issued last Thursday, Merrill Lynch says major energy stocks are poised for their best run since the s.
At the same time, the number of geologists and other technical personnel in the upstream end of the business has plunged by half since So even though oil producers are awash in cash, they won't have the ability to quickly ramp up exploration and development, the report says.
In the s, natural gas was hailed as the growth fuel of the future. It was relatively cheap, burned cleanly and polluted less.
Power plants that used the fuel were easy to build with reliable construction schedules. But it's become apparent that the early hosannas extolling the wonders of natural gas were overblown.
He went on to describe the issue as "very serious. Greenspan said the reasons for the tight supplies were a "colder-than-average winter," the country's "limited capacity to import liquefied natural gas" and the failure of increased drilling to raise production.
Greenspan also remarked on the contradictory federal policy toward natural gas. At the same time, federal policy becomes more restrictive and more limiting as to where we can drill for natural gas.
There are places in the U. It's not just federal policy, he said, "It's state policy and concerns of the public that are limiting the areas we can drill.
The technology is improving. But it seems they're running faster and harder and making no progress. A fairly good article that cuts to the chase and outlines the current NatGas supply problem.
Even if we are somehow lucky enough to squeak by this year, the long term problem remains that there are simply not enough drill rigs in existence, land access remain a delicate issue, permitting is often too slow to prevent repeated crises, and infrastructure is woefully inadequate to get supply to where it's needed.
This year will likely be just the first of many with low NatGas supply while demand continues to grow. That figure is absurdly low.
These are the people with many years of experience like my self that have permanently left the industry. You cannot ramp up exploration quickly without those people who have the hands on experience.
There is no body of memory and experience to avoid trouble and know where the secrets of the underground lay hidden. It takes years to develop that kind of experience and body of memory.
The bulk of those dollar-reserves will have to be written off as none of these mega-piles of dollars can possibly be exchanged for goods!
We don't need those dollarreserves anymore, because we have our own euroreserve NOW! The euro-project want to see a compensation for the total loss on these accumulated dollarreserves.
That compensation is the permanent Gold-Revaluation, only possible when the old dollar papergoldmarket dies and is replaced with the Free Physical euro Goldmarket.
A Free Goldmarket means that "Physical" trade of Gold will almost totally replace the dollar-paper-goldcontract-market wich has been containing Gold, up until now!
Individuals, corporations and nation states will consolidate their "wealth" surplusses in Physical Gold in possession as a temporary store of wealth.
When you need fiat, just sell your taxed physical Gold on the Free euro Goldmarket for euro and settle your trade with it.
The whole world is going to like this! The dollar-reserve out and Physical Gold in. This tiny amount of Physical investment-Wealth Bullion is guaranteed for each and every individual that desires to hold it.
I would like to learn "why" there is almost zero interest, on this forum, in what a "Free Goldmarket" could mean? I think one of the reasons is perhaps relatively few people understand the concept.
I don't mean to come across with an "us" and "them" vibe, but lets face it -- I've noticed a whole lotta "them" passing through have said they found FOA's Gold Trail to be cryptic.
Howzabout the subset group of "them" that are actually belligerent about it all and suggest that FOA has been purposefully and unnecessarily cryptic.
They don't even try to come up to speed. Then there's the group that can't fathom that a market's low current price for something relative to all other things might not even closely portray that item's relative value seen at a later point in time.
Poisonous plutonium to a man with a stone age mind will always be priced worthless when he can't fathom a new age of nuclear energy.
Of course, there's always that group of addicts playing their leveraged games who reject any and all visions of a world where they can't get their gambling fix from the paper world of Gold fakery or where bankrupted counterparty majorities deny them the minority their longfought jackpot.
Then there's probably a final set of silent people around here who do understand Free Gold, but are probably reluctant to allow themselves to accept that they yes, "hapless little ol' them" may indeed be on the threshold of a once-in-a-lifetime achievement in wealth transfer.
Too heady and too scary to even imagine! How many dare not whisper to the night, "What if I, too, were suddenly wealthy?!!
Better to leave the "wild dreaming" to other less practical men. Like you, I'd like to see this latter group put their scepticism aside and try to paint us a picture of their own little corner of the world as seen through the lens of an in-place-and-fully-functioning Free Gold market.
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